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NOVEMBER 5,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

WARNING – FROM ZEROHEDGE:   One day after US intelligence sources warned that Al-Qaeda may be preparing for potential terrorist attacks in New York, Texas and Virginia, on Saturday the Islamic State called for the "slaughter" of U.S. voters on Election Day and demanded that Muslims not participate in the democratic process because "there is no difference between the Republican and Democratic parties in their “policies against Islam and Muslims."  Rita Katz, director of terrorist monitoring group SITE Intelligence Group, said Saturday on Twitter that the threats appear in an essay carried by the Islamic State's Al Hayat media center that declares militants "have come to slaughter you and smash your ballot boxes."  "May Allah make this year’s U.S. presidential election a dreadful calamity like no other to have struck America throughout its pathetic history," the seven-page manifesto, entitled "The Murtadd Vote," read.  Rita Katz, no relation to me, is one of the best sources for this kind of information.  We can only be vigilant, use common-sense security measures, and hope.  We are a free society and we conduct open elections.

STATESMANSHIP – FROM THE HILL:    Secretary of State John Kerry will visit an Antarctic research station next week, making him the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the world’s southernmost continent.  Kerry will meet with scientists at the McMurdo Station in Antarctica during a trip Nov. 10–12, the State Department announced on Friday.  While there, Kerry will discuss the impact of climate change on the continent and will visit the Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area, which a group of 24 nations announced last month as the the world’s largest marine sanctuary.  When the marine area was established in October, Kerry praised it as one that “will safeguard one of the last unspoiled ocean wilderness areas on the planet — home to unparalleled marine biodiversity and thriving communities of penguins, seals, whales, seabirds, and fish.”  The penguins have promised Kerry a 21-chirp salute.

TRUMP SCARE – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   Secret Service agents rushed Donald Trump offstage on Saturday evening during a rally in Reno, Nevada after they determined a protester in the audience might pose a threat to the Republican presidential candidate.  'Go! Go!' agents shouted as they whisked Trump away and a combination of local police and private security wrestled Austyn Crites, 33, to the ground in the front of the crowd.  Crites identifies as a Republican who supports Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, according to his Facebook page.   A senior Trump campaign official told DailyMail.com that the suspect, whom rally-goers already identified as an anti-Trump protester, caused a panic when he reached into his waistband.  At that point, the campaign official said, a voice called out: 'He's got a gun!'  No gun was actually found.  But the incident once again shows the risks of modern politics.  Hillary Clinton is known to have a poor relationship with those sworn to protect her.  Trump apparently has a good one.  Maybe Hillary will reconsider.

November 5, 2016       Permalink

THE COOK VIEW – AT 12:46 P.M. ET:  Charlie Cook, one of the most influential election pundits, is calling back his announcement that the presidential race is over.  From The Hill: 

Influential election forecaster Charlie Cook is backing off his call that the presidential race is “over.”

Cook, the publisher of the Cook Political Report, made headlines last month when he tweeted: “Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER.”

Now, with polls tightening both nationally and in several key states, Cook says he still thinks Donald Trump will lose but no longer considers it implausible that the GOP nominee takes the presidency on Tuesday.

“The race is in a different place than 8 or 9 days ago when there was virtually no path for Trump,” Cook told The Hill on Saturday. “So yes, like everyone else, we've revised our assessment.”

Nine days ago, Cook held a definitive view of the race. When The Hill asked whether he could imagine a “moonshot” scenario in which Trump could win, he replied, “No.”

Cook noted still believes Trump’s chances are “fairly small.”

He said the GOP nominee needs a half-dozen or so things to go exactly right for him to win, whereas Hillary Clinton only needs one or two things to fall her way.

COMMENT:  I have a feeling, I've heard it from people, that some voters are going for Trump just to get back at the pollsters and pundits, and to assert the notion that it's the voters who select the president, not the journalists.  It's hard to know how big that "get lost" vote is, but it's there.

November 5, 2016       Permalink

COULD THIS BE TRUE? – AT 12:19 P.M. ET:   We report it to you as one polling result.  From Breitbart: 

Donald Trump is on track to double Gov. Mitt Romney’s support among African-American voters, according to a series of state polls.

In 2012, African-Americans comprised a record 13 percent of all voters. President Barack Obama was reelected with 93 percent of the African-American vote, leaving Gov. Mitt Romney with only 6 percent of the African-American vote. Obama is now campaigning against Trump, and hoping to keep his share of the African-American vote below the 11 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004 during the housing bubble.

On Friday, a poll of 506 Pennsylvania voters by Harper Polling showed Trump has the support of 18.46 percent of African-Americans. That’s eight points more than Romney’s share of the national vote in 2012, and if it proves true during the ballot, that 18.46 percent African-American support translates into 2 point shift towards Trump. The poll also said another 4.6 percent were undecided.

The Harper poll is small, with an error margin of 4.4 percent, but an Oct. 30 poll of 1,249 likely voters in Pennsylvania showed Trump has 19 percent support among African Americans, while another 7 percent remain undecided. That poll has a error margin of 2.77 percent.

In next-door Michigan, two nights of a tracking poll conducted for Fox 2 of 1,150 likely voters showed Trump with 14 percent support and 19 percent support, leaving Clinton with 83 percent and 79 percent support. That’s equivalent to a two-point shift from Clinton to Trump in the state.

“We’re showing Donald Trump doing far better among African-Americans than any other Republican in modern memory, said John Yob, CEO of a Michigan-based polling firm, Strategic National. Trump “has done an excellent job in campaigning for the votes of African-Americans,” he said, partly by campaigning in Detroit, said Yob, whose automated tracking polls show Trump and Clinton running level in the state.

COMMENT:  We'll see what the actual result is on Tuesday night, but the numbers don't shock me.  African-Americans have never been warm toward Hillary Clinton, and they aren't doing very well under the Democrats generally.  

November 5,  2016     Permalink

WITH THREE DAYS TO GO – AT 11:24 A.M. ET:  Not much excitement in the poll results this morning.

The national polls appear to be stabilizing around a small Clinton lead.  Very small indeed.  The new Fox poll is typical:

Hillary Clinton has a 2-point edge over Donald Trump with less than a week before the election.

That’s according to a new national Fox News Poll of likely voters conducted Tuesday-Thursday.

In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent). Gary Johnson gets 5 percent and Jill Stein two percent. Only four percent are undecided.

Without third-party candidates in the mix, Clinton is ahead by just one point: 46-45 percent. She was up five points in the two-way last week (49-44 percent, October 22-25).

IBD/TIPP has the race tied at 44-44 for the fourth straight day.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump remained all tied for the fourth straight day, 44% to 44%, despite continuing revelations surrounding the FBI's investigation into Clinton's emails and a possible "pay for play" scandal at the family Clinton Foundation, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Rasmussen doesn't report on weekends.  L.A. Times, which has leaned more toward Trump during this campaign than any other poll, has him up 5.3 points.

But the state polls should now be in the spotlight, as we vote by states on Tuesday.  (We actually have never had a national election.)  State polls are more difficult to read.  They're not taken as often as national trackers, of course.  But a number of battleground states seem to be moving toward Trump.  Whether he has the time until Tuesday to win them is an iffy proposition. 

November 5,  2016     Permalink 

NOVEMBER 4,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

AND ANOTHER – FROM FOX:    One NYPD officer was killed and another wounded in a shootout in the Bronx Friday afternoon following a 911 call to report a home invasion. The gunman also was killed.  New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio identified the dead officer as Sgt. Paul Tuozzolo, a 19-year veteran of the force and father of two young children.  "The city is in mourning, the whole family of the NYPD is in mourning," De Blasio said.  The gunman was identified as Manuel Rosales, 35, who had 17 prior arrests.  Seventeen priors and still out on the street.  Insanity.  The number of  police officers murdered is up 48% this year.  I have to believe it's related to the war on police generated by the political left.

DON NEEDLES HIL – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   Donald Trump attracted an estimated 11,000 people to a Pennsylvania hockey arena Friday night, and quickly boasted that unlike Hillary Clinton he didn't have to share top-billing with a singer to lure in the crowds.  'We are gonna win Pennsylvania big!' he said as he surveyed the nearly packed house in the famed chocolate town of Hershey. 'Look at this. I hear we set a new record for this building!'  'And by the way, I didn't have to bring J-Lo or Jay-Z – the only way she gets anybody,' the Republican presidential nominee boasted. 'I'm here all by myself. Just me. No guitar, no piano, no nothing.'  'But you know what we do have? And it's all of us. It's all the same. We have great ideas and great vision for our country.'  After we get through the bragging, we realize he's right.  Clinton needs major names to bring in the crowds.  Trump needs himself, and his crowds are much bigger.

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – FROM COLLEGE FIX:   Most universities just give celebrities honorary degrees, but three years ago, Emerson College actually renamed its School of Communication after the mustachioed blowhard Ron Burgundy from the Anchorman movies.  The occasion was an appearance by actor Will Ferrell as his Burgundy character to promote the second installment of the series. (Emerson also offers a comedy minor.)  Some things have changed since then – the School of Communication is no longer prefixed by Burgundy (it was a one-day stunt), and Emerson College now has no tolerance for the word “anchorman.”  Sexist, it is claimed.  A list of forbidden words was published, a common practice at many notoriously politically correct colleges.  Not exactly great preparation for the adult world.

November 4, 2016       Permalink

ON THE TRAIL WITH MR. HOPE AND CHANGE – AT 10:33 A.M. ET: We note that the Supreme Leader has been away from the job a great deal, and campaigning for someone he probably despises, Hillary Clinton.  The great Andrew Malcolm comments on the show, in our quote of the day: 

Not everybody notices, but Barack Obama is having a blast these last 11 weeks of political relevance. Sure, one cheeky trick-or-treater confronted the president dressed as a duck with his arm in a sling. Get it, lame duck?  

And never mind ISIS, which he vowed to defeat, and ObamaCare, which he vowed would save everyone $2,500. Neither is happening. But Obama is in his natural habitat, accepting campaign crowds’ adulation.

Obama’s many failures are smothered as media and much of the country endure these last frantic campaign days with polls, charges and say-anything-because-no-one-cares-about-truth-anymore.

So the aging pol is out there fundraising and campaigning, allegedly to help his one-time rival Hillary Clinton. Not really. He’s helping Clinton help him. Her election is the only way his tarnished legacy, such as it is, can survive.

And since WikiLeak’s disclosures re-opened the self-inflicted Clinton email scandal that never ends and revealed the dirty Democrat conspiracy to engineer Clinton’s nomination, her success doesn’t seem quite so inevitable anymore. Hello, 2008.

“I know it’s hard to view me as objective here,” Obama told North Carolina students this week, “but I’m about to leave. So I’m just lettin’ you know the truth.”

The truth? From the man who promised 36 times you could keep your doctor, who was going to end Washington’s bitter partisan divide, who’s vowed swift justice to many terrorists while releasing many others to rejoin the fight.

COMMENT:  Wonderfully stated.  Obama's approval ratings have risen recently, based on nothing but the fact that he seems at times more likeable that the people running.  He isn't, but it seems that way.

Two and a half more months of this nonsense.  Then, if Hillary is elected, four more years of it. 

November 4, 2016       Permalink

TRUMP GAINS IN STATES, BUT CLINTON STILL HAS THE EDGE – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   We'll be concentrating more on state polls as we approach election day.  We vote by state.  The electoral vote decides.  From The Hill:

Several battleground states that were leaning toward Hillary Clinton have shifted in recent days to become toss-ups, a Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project reported Friday.

In Florida and North Carolina, Donald Trump and Clinton are now reportedly tied. The two candidates are also neck-and-neck in Ohio.

In Michigan, Clinton's lead over her Republican rival has decreased, they say, and the state is too close to call.

Still, the States of the Nation project is predicting the Democratic nominee has about a 90 percent chance of winning the 270 electoral votes necessary to secure the presidency.

Last week, it gave the Democratic nominee a 95 percent chance.

In the past week, Trump's support has increased in 24 states and decreased in 11. In comparison, Clinton's support has grown in 13 states and decreased in 22.

The States of the Nation project surveys about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

COMMENT:  There are a number of indications in the polling of the last few days that Trump's momentum has stalled.  We are looking for a close election, one in which turnout will be all-important.  Who will vote?  Who won't?  Who's enthusiastic?  Who isn't?

Virtually all observers give the edge to Clinton, just as they gave the edge to President Dewey in 1948.

November 4, 2016       Permalink

TERROR WARNING – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  CBS News has learned of a terror warning for Monday, the day before the election:

NEW YORK -- CBS News has learned about a potential terror threat for the day before the election.

Sources told CBS News senior investigative producer Pat Milton that U.S. intelligence has alerted joint terrorism task forces that al Qaeda could be planning attacks in three states for Monday.

It is believed New York, Texas and Virginia are all possible targets, though no specific locations are mentioned.

U.S. authorities are taking the threat seriously, though the sources stress the intelligence is still being assessed and its credibility hasn’t been confirmed. Counterterrorism officials were alerted to the threat out of abundance of caution.

A senior FBI official told CBS News, “The counterterrorism and homeland security communities remain vigilant and well-postured to defend against attacks here in the United States. The FBI, working with our federal, state and local counterparts, shares and assesses intelligence on a daily basis and will continue to work closely with law enforcement and intelligence community partners to identify and disrupt any potential threat to public safety.”

Intelligence about potential threats always increases during holiday seasons and when big events are approaching.

As Election Day nears, federal law enforcement is planning for several worst-case scenarios.

COMMENT:   Rarely does a known threat ever materialize, but one never knows.  Eternal vigilance is required.

November 4,  2016     Permalink